JYP Q2 profit drops 41% as TWICE contract uncertainty and Stray Kids military looms

JYP Entertainment's Q2 operating profit fell 41.4% year-over-year to 31 billion won. Revenue dropped 15.1% to 183.1 billion won. Concert revenue tanked more than 30%, drowning out gains in album and digital sales. JYP stock was trading down 10.22% at 41,350 won as of 11:30 AM on August 13.

The Q2 concert slate was substantial. TWICE's world tour ran 23 shows. 2PM added 2 Japan dome dates. NiziU's Japan dome run contributed 4 more. Combined estimated attendance: 950,000. Total album sales for the quarter hit 2.55 million units. Stray Kids' mini 10th album, released August 7, has already moved over 2.85 million copies.

That Stray Kids figure is what's keeping analysts cautious. The group's fourth world tour spans 9 Asian cities with 18 shows currently announced, expected to drive near-term recovery. But military enlistment for members begins sequentially from 2027, with the full hiatus period kicking in from the second half of that year. Hana Securities analyst Lee Ki-hoon was direct: negative growth is unavoidable starting as early as 2027, or 2028 at the latest.

TWICE's re-contracting adds pressure. Jeongyeon ended her exclusive contract with JYP on August 10 and moved to Bare Entertainment, where her older sister is based. The remaining members are in discussions with JYP. Kiwoom Securities called TWICE's re-contract structure "the key variable this quarter" — more than the earnings themselves — while KB Securities flagged uncertainty about whether TWICE will tour at the same scale as before. Lee Ki-hoon expects TWICE to shift toward a BLACKPINK-style model: group comebacks roughly once every two to three years with solo activity filling the gaps.

All three brokerages cut their JYP target prices to 60,000 won. Kiwoom dropped from 81,000 won (a 25.9% cut). KB came down from 75,000 won. Yuanta fell from 70,000 won, though it kept its buy rating. The real test arrives after 2028: whether younger acts like ENHYPEN, Kickflip, and NEXZ can scale into large-venue tours and merchandise revenue fast enough to fill what Stray Kids will leave behind.