HYBE Q3 revenue seen up 106% YoY as BTS world tour drives record quarterly attendance
iM Securities keeps its Buy on HYBE but slashes target price 12% to ₩290,000, blaming industry-wide valuation pressure despite record Q3 forecasts.
BTS tour powers a record quarter
iM Securities analyst Hwang Ji-won issued a report on October 16 maintaining a Buy rating on HYBE while cutting the target stock price 12% to ₩290,000. The previous day's close sat at ₩165,100.
The cut reflects a lower target PER of 32x applied across the board to account for an industry-wide valuation decline. The rating stayed put.
Q3 revenue lands at ₩1.5010 trillion, up 106% year-over-year. Operating profit: ₩172.2 billion. Album sales clock in at roughly 8.6 million units, driven by boy group momentum from ENHYPEN and &TEAM.
Western markets cross 70% for the first time
The real story is attendance. Hwang wrote that the BTS world tour—16 North American stadium dates and 8 European stadium dates—combined with full-scale Western tours from junior groups ENHYPEN, CATS EYE, and COITUS pushed the Western audience share above 70% for the first time. Close to 3 million attendees. Hwang calls it "the largest quarterly audience in history."
CATS EYE's North America and Europe tour accounts for 31 dates in the second half of the year. Hwang flags this as a meaningful revenue driver already baked into the H2 outlook.
The 2027 question
The market's real anxiety is what happens after BTS wraps. Hwang pushed back directly: "The current stock price reflects excessive concerns about growth gap after BTS tour ends, with PER at 17x for 2027 estimates."
He argued that record Western-market revenue and operating leverage will become visible around the earnings announcement, making a low-price buying window likely. A further upside scenario exists if BTS adds Japan, Middle East, and encore dates beyond current market expectations. That would ease 2027 earnings uncertainty and trigger upward estimate revisions.
Hwang listed three variables he sees as decisive for next year's stock price:
- BTS tour leverage continuing into 2027
- CATS EYE and COITUS Western monetization scaling up
- Lineup expansion via a new US group debut plus NEWJEANS and SEVENTEEN comebacks
(The junior-group thesis is essentially HYBE's answer to the question every analyst is asking: who fills the stadium after BTS?)
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