BIGBANG World Tour, BLACKPINK Return Seen as H2 Catalysts as YG Misses Q2 Consensus

YG Entertainment is headed for a miss across the board in Q2 2024. Yuanta Securities projects consolidated revenue of 111.4 billion won and operating profit of 8.6 billion won — below consensus of 114.4 billion won and 10.7 billion won. Other estimates vary widely. One has revenue at roughly 109.2 billion won with operating profit near 9 billion won. Another puts revenue at 125.6 billion won but operating profit at just 6.4 billion won, a 24.0% year-over-year drop. The variance across firms signals real uncertainty. The direction, though, is consistent.

A base effect is the main drag. Q1 2024 had BLACKPINK's new album and a large-scale world tour. Q2 had neither. No major world tour. Lower merchandise sales. Higher production costs tied to comeback prep. All of it squeezed margins. Album sales stayed solid — TREASURE's 4th mini album moved roughly 1.05–1.06 million copies, BABYMONSTER's 3rd mini album sold around 810,000–830,000 copies, and combined with existing BLACKPINK catalog sales the quarter hit approximately 2 million total copies. Concert revenue still fell short of Q1 levels when BLACKPINK's large-scale shows dominated.

Q2's live schedule included TREASURE's 10-date Asia tour and three BABYMONSTER domestic concerts, plus BABYMONSTER's second world tour dates. BABYMONSTER's large popup stores ramped up from mid-June onward. None of it matched the concert revenue from Q1.

Analysts are looking ahead to the second half. BIGBANG's world tour runs from Q3 through Q1 of next year and is expected to draw roughly 1.77 million attendees based on maximum venue capacity. Kiwoom Securities called next-generation artist fandom growth and BIGBANG's global tour the core drivers of mid-to-long-term growth, maintaining a buy rating with a 60,000-won target price. SK Securities, also at buy, set a 63,000-won target and said major artist comebacks and world tours will make the medium-to-long-term growth trend "more pronounced" despite the near-term slowdown. Yuanta holds a 57,000-won target at buy.

Market consensus treats Q2 as the performance trough. If BLACKPINK resumes expanded global activities and new concert schedules from BABYMONSTER and TREASURE follow in H2, analysts expect album, concert, and merchandise revenue to recover all at once. Global tours carry an operating leverage benefit that single-revenue-stream activity does not.